Coulee Grain Advisory
Basis WatchWeek 41 · 8 October 2026
Basis Watch · PrairiesData to 4 October 2026
Canola basis narrows for a fourth week as harvest winds down
Prairie canola basis is back in line with its five year average. Spring wheat basis is steady, and the best place to act on this week's wheat call is Manitoba
1Spot basis this week
Spot basis narrowed in four of our five regions for canola and in three of five for spring wheat in the week to 4 October. Crushers in Manitoba and central Alberta raised spot bids as harvest deliveries slowed, while the Peace River region widened as elevator space there tightened.1
| Region | Canola | Canola change | CWRS 13.5 | CWRS change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manitoba | 18 | 4 tighter | 58 | 3 tighter |
| East Saskatchewan | 22 | 3 tighter | 63 | 1 tighter |
| West Saskatchewan | 25 | 2 tighter | 66 | Unchanged |
| Central Alberta | 21 | 3 tighter | 61 | 2 tighter |
| Peace River | 29 | 2 wider | 72 | 1 wider |
| Prairie average | 23 | 2 tighter | 64 | 1 tighter |
Source: posted elevator and crusher bids, ICE canola and Minneapolis spring wheat futures, Bank of Canada exchange rates, Coulee Grain Advisory calculations
Source: posted elevator and crusher bids, ICE canola and Minneapolis spring wheat futures, Bank of Canada exchange rates, Coulee Grain Advisory calculations
2Grade and protein spreads
Wet weather in late August left more of the spring wheat crop in the lower grades than a year ago. Elevators have widened the discount for No. 3 CWRS by $9 a tonne since last October, and the feed discount is the widest we have recorded at this point in the crop year.
| Grade | This week | Last week | Year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 2 CWRS 13.5 | 8 | 8 | 6 |
| No. 3 CWRS 13.5 | 27 | 24 | 18 |
| No. 1 CWRS 12.5 | 14 | 13 | 9 |
| CW Feed | 72 | 70 | 61 |
Source: posted elevator and crusher bids, ICE canola and Minneapolis spring wheat futures, Bank of Canada exchange rates, Coulee Grain Advisory calculations
3Elevator space
Producer deliveries ran ahead of shipments for a sixth week, and primary elevator stocks rose to 78 percent of working capacity across the Prairies. Where space is tightest, elevators are pricing spot delivery down and deferred delivery up, which is what the carry in Table 3 measures.2
Source: Canadian Grain Commission weekly primary elevator stocks and working capacity
4Against the Marketing Call
The Marketing Call issued on 1 October recommends selling a further 10 percent of spring wheat. Table 3 shows where that sale earns the most. In Manitoba, waiting for December adds only $3 a tonne, so spot delivery is the better choice. In the Peace River region and west Saskatchewan the December carry is wide enough to contract now for later delivery.
| Region | Spot | December | Carry | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manitoba | 58 | 55 | 3 | Sell spot |
| East Saskatchewan | 63 | 57 | 6 | Spot or November |
| West Saskatchewan | 66 | 58 | 8 | Defer to December |
| Central Alberta | 61 | 56 | 5 | Spot or November |
| Peace River | 72 | 61 | 11 | Defer to December |
Source: posted elevator and crusher bids, ICE canola and Minneapolis spring wheat futures, Bank of Canada exchange rates, Coulee Grain Advisory calculations
5What to watch next week
Thursday's Canadian Grain Commission release for signs that shipments are catching up with deliveries, port unloads at Vancouver after last week's rail delays, and whether crushers open more November delivery slots.
How this watch is built
- Basis is the posted spot or deferred bid less the nearby futures settlement in Canadian dollars, sampled at 64 elevators and crushers each Friday
- Regional figures are simple averages of sampled locations; the Prairie average weights each region equally
- Every bid is held on file with its date, location and source for subscribers who ask
Approved for subscribersDarren KowalchukLead Market Analyst · 8 October 2026
1 Canola basis is against the November ICE contract. Spring wheat basis is against the December Minneapolis contract, converted at the Bank of Canada daily rate.
2 Working capacity and stocks are from the Canadian Grain Commission weekly report for licensed primary elevators.