Hythe Marlow Research
Contract Cover TrackerNo. 4 · October 2026
Contract Cover Tracker · North AsiaData to 30 September 2026
Korea closes most of its winter gap
Two term agreements that started in the third quarter lifted Korean cover by six points. Taiwan is now the least covered market we track
1Where cover stands
Buyers in every market we track enter the winter with more of their expected deliveries under signed contract than a year ago. Across Japan, Korea and Taiwan, signed agreements now cover 42.7 million tonnes of the 52.5 million tonnes we expect buyers to take between November and March.1
| Market | Expected, Mt | Oct 2026 | Oct 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 27.0 | 84% | 79% | +5 pts |
| Korea | 19.5 | 80% | 74% | +6 pts |
| Taiwan | 6.0 E | 73% | 71% | +2 pts |
| North Asia | 52.5 | 81% | 76% | +5 pts |
Source: company announcements and exchange filings, Japan, Korea and Taiwan customs data, terminal schedules, Hythe Marlow Research estimates
Source: company announcements and exchange filings, Japan, Korea and Taiwan customs data, terminal schedules, Hythe Marlow Research estimates
2Signed and announced in September
Two agreements signed in September add cover from next year. Three more were announced as heads of agreement. We list them here but count none of them until a sale and purchase agreement is signed.2
| Buyer | Seller | Volume | Start | Counted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Korean power utility | US Gulf Coast project | 1.0 | Jan 2027 | Yes, signed SPA |
| Japanese power utility | Portfolio seller | 0.5 | Apr 2027 | Yes, signed SPA |
| Taiwanese importer | Australian project | 0.8 | Not set | No, heads of agreement |
| Japanese city gas buyer | Portfolio seller | 0.6 | 2028 | No, heads of agreement |
| Chinese importer | Qatari supplier | 0.4 | 2028 | No, heads of agreement |
Source: company announcements and exchange filings, September 2026
3What buyers still have to buy
Japan has the largest open volume in tonnes, but most of it sits with utilities that hold flexible portfolio supply. Taiwan's open volume is smaller and less flexible, and its winter buy tender, due in late October, is the first real price test of the season.
Source: company announcements and exchange filings, Japan, Korea and Taiwan customs data, terminal schedules, Hythe Marlow Research estimates
4Against our Buyer Survey
5Expiring agreements
Agreements covering 4.1 million tonnes a year expire by the end of 2027. Japanese utilities hold 2.9 million tonnes of that volume, which is why we expect most new Japanese signings over the next year to replace expiring supply rather than add cover.
| Market | 2026 | 2027 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.9 |
| Korea | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Taiwan | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| North Asia | 1.2 | 2.9 | 4.1 |
Source: company announcements and exchange filings
6What to watch in November
The award of Taiwan's winter buy tender, the start of new Korean regasification capacity, and whether any of September's heads of agreement turn into signed contracts before the year closes.
How this tracker is built
- Contracted means a signed sale and purchase agreement. Heads of agreement and memoranda are listed but not counted
- Expected winter deliveries are our estimates from customs history and the Buyer Survey, marked E where a market reports late
- Every figure traces to a filing, announcement, customs release or schedule held on file for subscribers who ask
Approved for subscribersClara VossHead of Gas Research · 6 October 2026
1 Winter means November to March. Volumes are deliveries into Japan, Korea and Taiwan; China is tracked from next quarter.
2 Volumes are annual contract quantities at plateau, not first year deliveries.