Fenwick Grid Analytics
Exit Year RegisterNo. 6 · Q3 2026
Exit Year Register · Great Britain and Northern IrelandData to 30 September 2026
Repowering overtakes power purchase agreements among 2027 exits
Of the 412 sites whose Renewables Obligation support ends in 2027, 138 now have a recorded decision. Repowering leads for the first time, ahead of corporate power purchase agreements
1Where decisions stand
The register holds 1,361 wind and solar stations, with 14,620 MW of accredited capacity, whose Renewables Obligation support ends between 2026 and 2029. A third of them now have a recorded decision. Nearly all 2026 exits are settled; for 2027 exits, the share decided rose from 25 per cent to 33 per cent over the quarter.1,2
| Exit year | Sites | Capacity, MW | Decided | Share decided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 286 | 3,940 | 231 | 81% |
| 2027 | 412 | 4,810 | 138 | 33% |
| 2028 | 365 | 3,220 | 61 | 17% |
| 2029 | 298 | 2,650 | 22 | 7% |
| All years | 1,361 | 14,620 | 452 | 33% |
Source: Ofgem Renewables Obligation register, Renewable Energy Planning Database, local planning portals, Fenwick Grid Analytics records
2What 2027 owners have chosen
Owners of 2027 exits recorded 34 decisions in the quarter. Fourteen were repowering applications, the most in any quarter since the register began, and 15 were owners confirming merchant operation without a contract. Only two new power purchase agreements were announced, against an average of three a quarter over the previous year.
| Decision | Onshore wind | Solar | Offshore wind | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Repower | 41 | 6 | 0 | 47 |
| Power purchase agreement | 24 | 11 | 2 | 37 |
| Merchant, no contract | 19 | 9 | 0 | 28 |
| Close | 18 | 8 | 0 | 26 |
| All decisions | 102 | 34 | 2 | 138 |
Source: Ofgem Renewables Obligation register, Renewable Energy Planning Database, local planning portals, Fenwick Grid Analytics records
Source: Ofgem Renewables Obligation register, Renewable Energy Planning Database, local planning portals, Fenwick Grid Analytics records
3Repowering applications
There are 58 live repowering applications across all exit years. Together they propose 2,310 MW of replacement capacity on sites that now hold 1,140 MW, as owners swap older turbines for fewer, larger machines. Scotland accounts for 1,420 MW of the proposed total.
Source: local planning portals, Scottish Government Energy Consents Unit, Fenwick Grid Analytics records
4Against our Merchant Price Outlook
5What to watch next quarter
Determinations on nine Scottish repowering applications due before the end of the year, the opening of the next Contracts for Difference allocation round to repowered onshore wind, and whether the 274 undecided 2027 owners start announcing contracts before their final winter of support.
How this register is built
- Every station on the Ofgem register with support ending between 2026 and 2029 is listed, with its accredited capacity and exit date
- A decision counts only when the owner states it in a planning application, filing, contract announcement or decommissioning notice
- Every record traces to a register entry, application or announcement held on file for subscribers who ask
Approved for subscribersRhiannon AlbrightHead of Renewables Research · 9 October 2026
1 Exit year is the year a station's twenty year support period ends, as recorded on the Ofgem register.
2 Capacity is accredited Renewables Obligation capacity at station level, not the capacity proposed in any repowering application.