Fuel Pathway Register, an example edition

Northwind Fuels Research

Fuel Pathway RegisterNo. 5 · October 2026

Fuel Pathway Register · Q3 2026Data to 30 September 2026

Carbon capture moves ethanol scores down the fastest

Programs certified 192 pathways in the quarter, and New Mexico's backlog is now the longest relative to its size. One ethanol plant with carbon capture cut its California score by 20.6 points

1Pathways by program

California still holds almost half of all certified pathways, but the newer programs are growing faster. New Mexico certified 22 pathways in the quarter and has 41 pending, close to half the size of its certified list. Washington's pending queue fell for the first time since its program began.¹

Table 1Pathways by program, end of September 2026number of pathways

Program	Certified	Pending	Certified in Q3	Withdrawn or expired
California LCFS	1,412	186	74	21
Oregon CFP	618	63	29	8
Washington CFS	402	71	33	5
New Mexico CTFS	88	41	22	0
British Columbia LCFR	356	38	15	6
Canada CFR	214	57	19	3
All programs	3,090	456	192	43

Source: California Air Resources Board LCFS pathway tables, Oregon DEQ Clean Fuels Program, Washington Department of Ecology, New Mexico Environment Department, British Columbia Ministry of Energy, Environment and Climate Change Canada

2Carbon intensity of new pathways

Scores for newly certified liquid fuel pathways keep falling. Ethanol has dropped the most, by 7 points in two years, as plants add carbon capture, combined heat and power and low tillage corn sourcing. Renewable diesel scores fall more slowly because feedstock mix, not plant design, drives most of the change.²

Figure 1Average carbon intensity of newly certified pathways, all programsgrams CO2e per megajoule

3Largest score changes in the quarter

Five existing pathways changed score by more than 2.5 points this quarter. Two moved up: a renewable diesel refinery moved from provisional to certified on a less favorable feedstock mix, and a landfill gas project lost a methane destruction credit.

Table 2Largest carbon intensity changes, Q3 2026grams CO2e per megajoule

Facility	Program	Fuel	Prior	New	Change
Iowa plant with carbon capture	California	Ethanol	52.4	31.8	Down 20.6
Nebraska plant	Oregon	Ethanol	55.1	49.7	Down 5.4
Texas landfill gas project	Washington	RNG	41.3	46.8	Up 5.5
Louisiana refinery	California	Renewable diesel	38.9	43.2	Up 4.3
Saskatchewan plant	Canada CFR	Biodiesel	24.6	21.9	Down 2.7

4Pending applications

Of the 456 pending pathways, 85 have been in review for more than a year, most of them complex applications for renewable natural gas and carbon capture. We keep each pending pathway in the register with its submitted score so subscribers can see what may arrive.

Figure 2Pending pathways by time in review, end of Septembernumber of pathways

Under 3 months: 132
3 to 6 months: 118
6 to 12 months: 121
Over 12 months: 85

5Against the Clean Fuels Credit Outlook

6What to watch in the fourth quarter

Whether California clears the oldest renewable natural gas applications before its January program changes, the first Washington pathways for sustainable aviation fuel, and Oregon's planned update to its default scores for imported ethanol.

How this register is built

A pathway enters the register when a program posts its application and moves to certified on the program's published approval
Every score change keeps its prior value and date, so each pathway shows its full history
Credit effects use our facility volume estimates from the Credit Outlook and are reviewed by our analysts before publication

Approved for subscribersHannah LindqvistHead of Low Carbon Fuels Research · 7 October 2026

¹ Counts include provisional pathways where a program certifies them. Canadian counts are approved carbon intensities under the federal Clean Fuel Regulations.

² Scores are certified carbon intensity before any program adjustment for energy economy or indirect land use where programs report them separately.