Maple Hollow Insights
Launch Readiness TrackerQ3 2026 · October 2026
Launch Readiness Tracker · CanadaData to 30 September 2026
Listings speed up, but rare disease launches stall at negotiation
Three more tracked launches reached a provincial formulary this quarter. Neurology moved the other way after a negative recommendation, and specialists noticed
1Where tracked launches stand
We track 40 launches across five therapeutic areas from the notice of compliance to public listing. Thirty five now hold a notice of compliance, 24 have a positive recommendation from Canada's Drug Agency, 15 have concluded pCPA negotiation and 13 are listed in at least one province.1
| Area | Tracked | NOC | Recommended | pCPA closed | Listed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oncology | 14 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 5 |
| Immunology | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| Rare disease | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Cardiometabolic | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Neurology | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| All areas | 40 | 35 | 24 | 15 | 13 |
Source: Health Canada Notice of Compliance database, Canada's Drug Agency recommendations, pCPA negotiation status, provincial formulary bulletins, Maple Hollow Insights tracking
Source: Health Canada Notice of Compliance database, Canada's Drug Agency recommendations, pCPA negotiation status, provincial formulary bulletins, Maple Hollow Insights tracking
2Milestones dated this quarter
Five milestones landed between July and September. Two had moved since our June edition: the Ontario listing slipped by a month, and the gene therapy recommendation arrived earlier than the agency's posted target date. We keep every prior date on file so clients can see how often a timeline was revised.2
| Product | Area | Milestone | Date | Revised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oral targeted therapy, lung | Oncology | pCPA letter of intent | 12 Aug | No |
| Biologic, Crohn's disease | Immunology | Ontario listing | 1 Sep | Yes, from 1 Aug |
| Gene therapy, rare muscle | Rare disease | Reimburse with conditions | 28 Aug | Yes, from 25 Sep |
| Antibody, early Alzheimer's | Neurology | Do not reimburse | 4 Sep | No |
| Oral obesity therapy | Cardiometabolic | Notice of compliance | 19 Sep | No |
Source: Health Canada Notice of Compliance database, Canada's Drug Agency recommendations, pCPA negotiation status, provincial formulary bulletins, Maple Hollow Insights tracking
3Provincial listings
Quebec lists the most tracked launches because it reviews through its own agency and often lists before pCPA closes. The Atlantic provinces trail by a wide margin, and four of the 13 listed launches are not yet available on any Atlantic formulary.
Source: provincial formulary bulletins to 30 September 2026
4Specialist awareness and intent to prescribe
The September panel wave reached 556 specialists. Intent to prescribe a tracked launch within six months rose two points overall. Neurology was the exception: intent fell five points in the weeks after the do not reimburse recommendation for the Alzheimer's antibody.3
| Area | Specialists | Aware | Intend to prescribe | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oncology | 142 | 88% | 61% | +4 pts |
| Immunology | 118 | 81% | 54% | +2 pts |
| Rare disease | 64 | 72% | 47% | +6 pts |
| Cardiometabolic | 136 | 76% | 49% | +3 pts |
| Neurology | 96 | 69% | 31% | Down 5 pts |
| All specialists | 556 | 78% | 50% | +2 pts |
Source: Maple Hollow Insights specialist panel, September 2026 wave
5Against our Uptake Study
6What to watch next quarter
The pCPA outcome for the gene therapy, whether the oral lung therapy reaches its first listing before year end, and whether the sponsor of the Alzheimer's antibody requests reconsideration of its recommendation.
How this tracker is built
- Every milestone is dated from a public notice or bulletin, and every revision keeps the earlier date on file
- A launch counts as listed only when it appears on a public provincial formulary, not under exceptional access alone
- Panel figures are weighted to the specialist mix in each area and reported only where at least 50 specialists answered
Approved for subscribersNadia BriseboisVice President, Market Access Research · 9 October 2026
1 Recommended includes reimburse and reimburse with conditions. pCPA closed means a letter of intent has been signed.
2 Revised shows the date we held before the milestone occurred, taken from sponsor guidance or the agency's posted target.
3 Change is measured against the June wave for the same areas. Panel sizes moved by fewer than ten specialists in every area.