Ardent Metals Desk
Mill Announcement LedgerNo. 38 · Week of 5 October 2026
Mill Announcement Ledger · US steel and aluminumData to 2 October 2026
Two mills lift hot rolled coil by $40 as import licenses fall
Two flat rolled producers announced $40 per ton increases on hot rolled coil, effective 12 October. Steel import licenses for September ran 11 percent below August
1Logged this week
We logged six actions in the week to 2 October. Four are mill price actions, one is a lead time statement and one is a trade remedy determination. Each is tied to the series in our Outlook that it is most likely to move.1
| Issuer | Product | Action | Effective | Series moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Integrated mill, Midwest | Hot rolled coil | +$40/ton | 12 Oct | HRC Midwest |
| Minimill, Southeast | Hot rolled coil | +$40/ton | 12 Oct | HRC Midwest |
| Minimill, Southeast | Rebar | +$30/ton | 19 Oct | Rebar Southeast |
| Rolling mill, Kentucky | Aluminum sheet | Surcharge +2¢/lb | 1 Nov | Midwest premium |
| Plate mill, Gulf Coast | Cut to length plate | Lead time 6 to 8 wks | 29 Sep | Plate Gulf |
| Commerce Department | Aluminum extrusions | AD duties 14% to 38% | 30 Sep | Extrusion premium |
Source: mill price letters and releases, Federal Register notices, week to 2 October 2026
2Hot rolled coil against our band
Midwest hot rolled coil fell through July and August to $860 per short ton on 31 August, then recovered $20 in September to close at $880. That sits in the upper half of our September forecast band of $845 to $910, before either of this week's increases takes effect.
Source: mill price letters and releases, exchange settlements, Ardent Metals Desk spot assessments
3How much of an increase sticks
Not every announced increase reaches the market. Across third quarter announcements, spot rebar and the aluminum Midwest premium absorbed most of what mills asked for within four weeks, while hot rolled coil kept less than half.2
Source: mill price letters and releases, exchange settlements, Ardent Metals Desk spot assessments
4Import licenses
Import licenses for September totaled 1.74 million metric tons, down from 1.96 million in August. Every product group fell, which supports the mills' case for higher prices into the fourth quarter.
| Product group | Sep 2026 | Aug 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flat rolled | 610 | 690 | Down 12% |
| Semifinished | 520 | 590 | Down 12% |
| Long products | 280 | 310 | Down 10% |
| Pipe and tube | 260 | 290 | Down 10% |
| Stainless | 70 | 80 | Down 13% |
| All steel | 1,740 | 1,960 | Down 11% |
Source: Commerce Department Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis license data
5Against our Metals Buying Outlook
How this ledger is built
- Every published mill price letter, surcharge table, lead time statement and federal trade action is logged on the day it appears
- Each entry is tied to the Outlook series it most directly moves and to that series' current forecast band
- Every entry traces to a letter, release or Federal Register notice held on file for subscribers who ask
Approved for subscribersDana WhitcombeHead of Metals Research · 5 October 2026
1 Steel prices are per short ton, FOB mill, for Midwest delivery unless stated. Aluminum surcharges are per pound.
2 Realized share is the change in the weekly spot series four weeks after an increase takes effect, divided by the increase announced.