Bellweather Pay Outlook
Settlement TrackerNo. 7 · Q3 2026
Settlement Tracker · CanadaData to 30 September 2026
Public sector settlements stay ahead of plans
Agreements ratified in the third quarter gave an average first year increase of 3.4 per cent, against the 3.1 per cent employers planned for 2026
1Settlements ratified in the quarter
The quarter was dominated by public sector bargaining. Education and health and public administration account for 76 per cent of covered employees, and both settled above what employers in those sectors told us they planned.1
| Sector | Agreements | Employees | First year | Planned 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public administration | 14 | 86,400 | 3.4% | 3.0% |
| Education and health | 22 | 141,200 | 3.6% | 3.1% |
| Manufacturing | 18 | 23,700 | 3.1% | 3.2% |
| Transportation | 9 | 31,500 | 3.3% | 3.1% |
| Trade and services | 12 | 17,600 | 2.9% | 3.0% |
| All sectors | 75 | 300,400 | 3.4% | 3.1% |
Source: Employment and Social Development Canada major wage settlements, published arbitration awards, Bellweather Pay Outlook industry coding
Source: Employment and Social Development Canada, Statistics Canada consumer price index, Bellweather Pay Outlook
2Settlements by region
British Columbia and Ontario settled highest, driven by health sector agreements in both provinces. Atlantic settlements were the lowest for a third quarter running.
Source: Employment and Social Development Canada major wage settlements, published arbitration awards, Bellweather Pay Outlook industry coding
3Minimum wage changes
Indexed minimum wage increases this year sit between 2.0 and 2.5 per cent, below both settlements and planned increases. Employers with large hourly workforces in Manitoba face the largest step, on 1 October.2
| Jurisdiction | Previous | New | Increase | Effective |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal | $17.75 | $18.10 | 2.0% | 1 Apr 2026 |
| British Columbia | $17.85 | $18.25 | 2.2% | 1 Jun 2026 |
| Ontario | $17.60 | $17.95 | 2.0% | 1 Oct 2026 |
| Manitoba | $16.00 | $16.40 | 2.5% | 1 Oct 2026 |
| Saskatchewan | $15.35 | $15.70 | 2.3% | 1 Oct 2026 |
Source: federal and provincial minimum wage orders and government announcements
4Against our Pay Planning Outlook
5What to watch in the fourth quarter
Federal public service bargaining, where the largest tables cover more than 100,000 employees, the outcome of two pending arbitrations in Ontario health care, and how far the 2027 Outlook, due in November, moves planned increases up.
How this tracker is built
- Settlements are major agreements covering 500 or more employees, counted in the quarter they are ratified
- First year increases include lump sums only where they are built into base rates
- Each agreement is coded to the Outlook's industry and region groups so the two series compare like with like
Approved for subscribersHélène MarchandChief Economist · 9 October 2026
1 Planned increases come from nonunion and union employers alike, so sector comparisons are indicative rather than exact.
2 Rates shown are general adult minimum wages; student, liquor server and other special rates are excluded.