Budget variance analysis

Tie the actuals to the trial balance, compare with budget and reforecast, and explain every variance over the threshold by driver and evidence. Written in last month's format

Customize this Agent

XLSXDOCX13 steps

The problem

The books are closed. Leadership asks what moved, why, and whether it comes back

Revenue on budget can hide a price cut paid for with extra volume. A cost under budget can be an invoice nobody accrued, not a saving. A variance called timing in August has to come back when the pack said it would, or be called permanent. And if the mapped actuals do not tie to the trial balance, every line of commentary explains the wrong number

The request

September is closed and everything is attached. Build the budget variance analysis: actuals against budget and the July reforecast, month and year to date, by reporting line. Tie the mapped actuals to the TB first. Comment on anything over $50k and 5% for the month, or $150k and 5% year to date, with the driver (volume, price, mix, rate, FX, timing or one off) and the evidence. Say what is timing and when it reverses, whether August's timing items came back, and the full year impact of anything permanent against the reforecast. Same format as August. Flag anything that looks like a posting error rather than explain it, and don't drop an account you can't map.

September TB.xlsx
GL detail Jul to Sep.xlsx
September sales by SKU.xlsx
Headcount roster September.xlsx
FY26 Budget.xlsx
July Reforecast.xlsx
August Variance Workbook.xlsx
August Pack.docx

How Axe works

ApprovedChanges asked

Your reviewApprove, or say what to change

Approved or changes

Variance workbook and commentaryWorkbook, commentary and tie out

Final reviewApprove the revised files

Revised variance workbook and commentaryRevised files and tie out

Step

Explain each material variance

Prompt

Sent to the model at this step

Explain every flagged line by driver and size each driver in dollars, so the drivers add to the variance. On revenue, split the variance by product line into volume, price and mix, using units and net price from the sales by SKU file against budgeted units and prices, and against the reforecast for the reforecast comparison. Split gross margin the same way, with unit cost as its own driver, only if the budget carries unit cost by product line; if it does not, say the margin variance cannot be split and leave it whole unless I supply budgeted unit costs. On costs, work from the GL detail: name the vendor, journal and amount behind each driver, separate volume from rate, such as wage rates or purchase price variance, and separate a change in run rate from a one off such as a settlement, a write off or a catch up invoice. Compare each recurring vendor across the three months: one billed in July and August but missing in September points to an invoice not accrued. On payroll, set actual against budgeted FTE by role from the headcount roster and split the variance into unfilled roles, hires and rate. Where revenue or costs are in another currency, restate them at the budget exchange rates and show FX as its own driver. Where the cause is phasing, give the month the plan expected it. For the year to date, carry forward the drivers in August's workbook and add September's. If a variance comes from a missing accrual, a reversal that did not post or a cost coded to the wrong account, do not explain it as performance; flag it to me with the journal and the correction it needs. Cite the file, tab and row, or the journal number, for every figure. If a driver cannot be evidenced, leave that part unexplained and say so.

Uses

Gl detail
Sales by sku
Headcount roster
Budget
Reforecast
Last month workbook
Variance table

Produces

Driver workbook
Posting issues

What you get back

XLSXVariance workbookSummary by reporting line, then mapping, reconciliation, drivers, price volume mix, headcount and timing

DOCXVariance commentaryHeadline, then each material variance by driver and full year impact, in August's format

Tie out reportEvery figure marked tied, corrected or open, with its source

Make it yours

Set your own threshold, point it at your reporting lines and mapping, or change the order of the commentary. Every step and every prompt can be edited

Customize this Agent

Opens a private copy of this Agent in your workspace, ready to adapt to your own sources

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