Debt sustainability analysis

Debt stock on the public sector perimeter, baseline and stress paths against the thresholds, and the relief a treatment must deliver. Every figure traced to its source

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DOCXXLSX16 steps

The problem

Senegal's debt is 119 percent of GDP officially and 132 by the IMF

Senegal's government puts end 2024 debt at 119 percent of GDP, leaving out what state companies borrowed. The IMF puts the whole public sector at 132 percent, including 4 points of domestic arrears it counted pending an audit. Start from the official stock and public debt is 13 points light before any projection, so the overall rating and the relief sized from it are wrong too

The request

Senegal reached staff level agreement on a $2.2 billion ECF on 1 September and is seeking an external debt treatment under the Common Framework. Give me our debt sustainability analysis on the LIC-DSF before the Board sees the IMF's. Rebuild the stock by creditor, instrument and currency on the IMF's public sector perimeter, bridged to the official 119 percent. Classify debt carrying capacity, project baseline paths to 2036, run the standard and tailored stress tests and rate the risk. Size the relief by creditor group that brings each external indicator under its threshold by the program's end, with regional market debt in and out. Workbook and a six page note with what moved since our March analysis, attached.

Senegal DSA Mar 2026.xlsx

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Note and workbookNote, workbook and fact check

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Revised note and workbookRevised files and fact check

Step

Reconcile the perimeter

Prompt

Sent to the model at this step

Bridge the official figure to the IMF's before anything is projected. Start from the government's end 2024 debt of 119 percent of GDP, which leaves out borrowing by state companies, and add line by line what the IMF's total public sector debt of 132 percent covers and the official figure does not: state owned enterprise debt, guaranteed and unguaranteed apart; the 4 percent of GDP in domestic expenditure arrears pending the Inspectorate General of Finance audit; and any other item the IMF's releases name. The borrowing the Court of Auditors found left out of past reporting is already inside the 119 percent; show it as a memo line within the official figure, never as a bridge item. Put both figures on one GDP series and say which. If the bridge does not close at 132 percent, show the residual as its own line with what could explain it; never force it to close. List every instrument in the stock that the official bulletins leave out. Then fix the perimeter for every later step at the IMF's coverage, and split external from domestic debt on the basis the last published World Bank and IMF analysis for Senegal used, residency or currency, stating which. Roll the stock forward to end 2025 and the latest date on that perimeter, showing new borrowing, amortization, arrears cleared and exchange rate moves apart.

Uses

Country
As of date
Debt stock

Produces

Perimeter bridge

What you get back

DOCXDebt sustainability noteRisk rating, sustainability call and relief needed, then stock, paths, stress tests, treatment, changes

XLSXAnalysis workbookDebt stock, perimeter bridge, baseline, paths against thresholds, stress tests, treatment, changes since March

Fact checkOpen items first, then each figure marked checked or corrected, with its source

Make it yours

Point it at another country, set your own baseline or treatment target, or change the creditor groups and cases. Every step and every prompt can be edited

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