Agent examplesEnergy and commodities research

Levelized cost of energy analysis

Cost per MWh for new build by technology, online year and credit case, on one financing basis and bridged to Lazard's ranges. Every input traced to its source

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XLSXPPTX15 steps

The problem

Solar started after July 4, 2026 gets no credit if online after 2027

Lazard's 2026 unsubsidized ranges put utility solar at $40 to $98 per MWh and combined cycle gas at $51 to $129. Solar in service after 2027 keeps its tax credit only if construction began by July 4, 2026, and a June court ruling let the five percent safe harbor count as a start again. Credit every 2028 to 2030 Texas project and solar's lead over gas is overstated

The request

Build our LCOE analysis for new ERCOT plants online 2028 to 2030: utility solar, onshore wind, solar plus four hour storage, combined cycle and peakers. Take capital cost, O&M, capacity factors and heat rates from public data, and use our gas price forecast and cost of capital, attached. Wind and solar unsubsidized and in three credit cases by construction start: physical work by July 4, 2026, five percent safe harbor only, and after July 4, 2026. Keep the storage credit apart from the solar's. Gas with and without a Texas Energy Fund loan. Bridge every technology to Lazard's 2026 range, with sensitivities to gas price, WACC and capacity factor. Workbook and a deck with the range bars.

Gas price forecast Q3 2026.xlsx
Cost of capital 2026.xlsx

How Axe works

ApprovedChanges asked

Your reviewApprove, or say what to change

Approved or changes

Workbook and deckWorkbook, deck and source check

Final reviewApprove the revised files

Revised workbook and deckRevised files and source check

Step

Test credit eligibility

Prompt

Sent to the model at this step

Set the federal credit each technology can claim for each online year and construction start, from the statute, IRS guidance and court rulings on the as of date. Under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a wind or solar facility that begins construction after July 4, 2026 earns the 45Y production credit or the 48E investment credit only if it is placed in service by December 31, 2027, so every 2028 to 2030 online year turns on when construction began. Build three cases for wind and solar. First, construction begun by July 4, 2026 under the physical work test. Second, begun by that date on the five percent safe harbor alone: IRS Notice 2025-42 removed that safe harbor for wind and solar from September 2, 2025, and a federal court vacated the notice in June 2026. Split it at September 2, 2025: safe harbors set before that date stand under the earlier guidance whatever happens on appeal, and only those set after it rest on the June ruling. Find whether that ruling has been appealed or stayed and say what it means for the later safe harbors. Third, begun after July 4, 2026, which earns no credit. Check that the first two cases meet the continuity requirement for their online year, and in each take the production or investment credit, whichever gives the lower cost. Take the full rate with prevailing wage and apprenticeship, and test the reference site for the energy community and domestic content bonuses. Put the battery in the hybrid on its own line: the investment credit for energy storage sits outside the wind and solar cutoff and runs through 2033, so the battery keeps its credit when the solar loses it. Test every facility that began construction after 2025, the solar and wind as well as the battery, against the material assistance cost ratio for prohibited foreign entities at the threshold for its construction start year. Gas earns no federal credit. Cite the section, notice or ruling and its date for every rule.

Uses

Scope
As of date
Reference plants

Produces

Credit eligibility

What you get back

XLSXLCOE modelInputs with sources, credit cases, cost by technology and year, sensitivities, Lazard bridge

PPTXLCOE deckRange bars by technology, credit cases by construction start, gas loan case, Lazard bridge

Source checkOpen items first, then each input and figure marked checked or corrected

Make it yours

Point it at another market or online years, change the technologies, cost sources or financing basis, or match your house deck. Every step and every prompt can be edited

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