Patient based forecast

The label population counted from incidence to treated patients each year, priced to peak sales in three cases and bridged to consensus. Every input sourced

Customize this Agent

XLSXDOCX16 steps

The problem

No RAS test on the label, and unfit first line patients are in

Rasonque's label needs no RAS test and, beyond patients treated before, covers those who are not candidates for multiagent therapy from first line. Cut the funnel to RAS mutant tumors and to second line, and the population is wrong twice. Stage at diagnosis is the third leak: SEER puts 51% of pancreatic cancers distant at diagnosis, yet patients among the 43% found localized or regional turn metastatic when they recur

The request

Rasonque was approved on 26 August and our RAS program will compete with it in pancreatic. Rebuild our competitor forecast before the LRP: patient based, US by year to peak, then EU5 and Japan. Incidence, adenocarcinoma, metastatic at diagnosis plus recurrence, treated by line, share, duration of therapy, compliance and net price, in bear, base and bull. Size the label as approved: no RAS cut, and patients who are not candidates for multiagent therapy count from first line. Bridge to consensus and to our June forecast, both attached. Give me the model and a short note on peak sales and the sensitivities that move it.

RVMD consensus Sept 2026.xlsx
Daraxonrasib forecast June 2026.xlsx

How Axe works

ApprovedChanges asked

Your reviewApprove, or say what to change

Approved or changes

Forecast model and noteModel, note and check report

Final reviewApprove the revised files

Revised forecast model and noteRevised files and check report

Step

Build the patient funnel

Prompt

Sent to the model at this step

Turn the metastatic pool into the patients the label covers, by market, line and year. First line: the share of the pool treated with any systemic therapy, and the share who are not candidates for multiagent therapy, whether they now get single agent therapy or no treatment. Every patient in that second group is eligible for Rasonque at first line, treated today or not, because the label admits them before any prior regimen. Patients who recur after adjuvant or neoadjuvant therapy have already received a systemic therapy: size them apart, by time from that therapy to recurrence, and count them eligible at their first metastatic line as far as the label's wording admits them. Second line: the share of first line patients, fit and unfit, who progress, survive and receive further therapy; then third line the same way. Take each rate from real world studies in US claims, oncology records and registries, and from national studies in each ex US market, and record the population and denominator each rate is measured on. Count each patient once per line, in the year they reach it, and take out patients who die before treatment. Apply no RAS cut: the label requires no test, so every patient with metastatic adenocarcinoma in a covered line is eligible. Alongside the base, size the funnel the two ways it is most often misread, cut to RAS mutant tumors and limited to second line, so the bridges can show what each reading costs. Where studies disagree, show the range, set the base with the reason and use the ends for bear and bull.

Uses

Label and trial
Metastatic pool
Markets and cases

Produces

Patient funnel

What you get back

XLSXForecast modelLabel population, funnel by line and year, share, duration, price, cases, bridges

DOCXForecast notePeak sales by case first, then population, funnel, uptake, bridges and sensitivities

Check reportOpen items first, then every input and figure marked checked, recalculated or corrected

Make it yours

Point it at your own asset or indication, set your markets, analogs and cases, or start from your own funnel. Every step and every prompt can be edited

Customize this Agent

Opens a private copy of this Agent in your workspace, ready to adapt to your own sources

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