Recovery analysis

Build the claims pool, value the reorganized company several ways and run each collateral group's waterfall by class. Every claim ties to a docket or SEC filing

Customize this Agent

XLSXDOCX13 steps

The problem

Two collateral groups, two DIPs and a $1.5 billion intercompany claim in dispute

Trinseo's plan has two collateral groups, OpCo and Super HoldCo, each with its own DIP and a two for one roll up. Class 6 holds $716 million of OpCo 2028 term loans and a disputed $1.508 billion intercompany claim pledged to the Super HoldCo 1L lenders. Consolidate the groups, count a roll up twice or run that claim through the wrong waterfall, and every class recovery is wrong

The request

Recovery analysis on Trinseo (Bankr. S.D. Tex., No. 26-90545) off the amended plan and disclosure statement, as of October 1. Claims pool by class, OpCo and Super HoldCo groups kept separate. Value the reorganized company on a DCF, comps and precedents, against Centerview's $1.45 to $1.95 billion. Each group's waterfall in its own order, with the intercompany claim's OpCo recovery going to the Super HoldCo 1L, capped at its claim. Takeback term loans at par and market, new equity after dilution. Each class against the plan's recovery and our marks, attached, with implied returns. Run Class 6 with the intercompany claim allowed, disallowed and subordinated, and the RCF subordinated. Tie every claim to its filing and flag what doesn't.

Marks Oct 1.xlsx

How Axe works

ApprovedChanges asked

Your reviewApprove, or say what to change

Approved or changes

Recovery workbook and memoApproved workbook, memo and tie out

Final reviewApprove the revised files

Revised recovery workbook and memoRevised files and tie out

Step

Run the waterfall

Prompt

Sent to the model at this step

Run a separate waterfall for each collateral group at the low, mid and high value, each in its own order, and check each order against the intercreditor chart in the disclosure statement. Put the professional fee carve out on top, then rank DIP new money and roll up as the DIP orders rank them, then adequate protection claims as the orders grant them. OpCo: the RCF, then the OpCo term loans with the 2028 term loans and the intercompany claim side by side, then general unsecured claims sharing with any deficiency claims, then whatever is left for the holder of OpCo's equity. Super HoldCo: the Super HoldCo 1L, which recovers from its own collateral and from what the intercompany claim recovers at OpCo, capped at its claim across every source, then the 2029 notes, then equity. Pay other administrative and priority claims from unencumbered value or as the plan allocates them, never automatically ahead of prepetition liens. Then value the consideration each class receives under the plan: takeback term loans at par and at market, new equity at our equity value in each case after dilution for the rights offering, any backstop premium and the management incentive plan, and subscription rights at the gap between the rights offering price and that value. The disclosure statement counts the OpCo intercompany subscription rights in both Class 5 and Class 6; count them once and say where. Apply the intercompany settlement, so the intercompany lender's share of the OpCo exit distribution goes to the supporting 2028 term lenders, and show supporting and non supporting 2028 lenders apart. Run Class 6 with the intercompany claim allowed, disallowed and subordinated, and again with the RCF subordinated, as the lender complaint seeks, and show what each scenario does to every class in both waterfalls.

Uses

Case file
Claims pool
Valuation

Produces

Waterfall

What you get back

XLSXRecovery workbookClaims pool, valuation, each group's waterfall, claim scenarios, recovery table and source log

DOCXRecovery memoClass recoveries against the plan, then the value range, scenarios, returns and open items

Tie out reportEach claim and recovery marked tied, corrected or open

Make it yours

Point it at another case, use your own value range, or add the claim scenarios your desk runs. Every step and every prompt can be edited

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