Earnings preview

Put our estimates against consensus on one basis, back the quarter out of the full year guide and read across from peers. Every figure ties to its source

Customize this Agent

DOCXXLSX13 steps

The problem

No quarterly guide, two revenue definitions and the first 2027 outlook in one release

Deere does not guide the quarter. The fourth quarter is what the $4.75 to $5.00 billion net income guide leaves after $3.81 billion through nine months. Consensus revenue can mean equipment net sales or net sales and revenues, $11.0 billion or $12.6 billion last quarter. An unmatched line shows a beat or a miss that is only a definition

The request

Deere reports fiscal Q4 on the morning of November 25. Write the preview. Put our estimates against consensus line by line: net sales and operating margin for each equipment segment, Financial Services net income, net income and EPS, for the quarter and for fiscal 2027. Show what the August guide leaves for Q4, in total, per share and by segment, and remember last year's Q4 had an extra week. Read across from Caterpillar, AGCO and CNH and the latest AEM retail numbers. Lay out the debates, the metrics the buy side will watch and what would move the stock either way. Consensus and our model are attached. Where they define a line differently, flag it before you compare.

Deere consensus.xlsx
Our DE model.xlsx

How Axe works

ApprovedChanges asked

Your reviewApprove, or say what to change

Approved or changes

Preview note and workbookNote, workbook and tie out report

Final reviewApprove the revised files

Revised preview note and workbookRevised files and tie out

Step

Line up estimates

Prompt

Sent to the model at this step

Open the consensus file and our model and put every line on one definition before comparing. Net sales exclude finance and interest income and other income, and net sales and revenues include them, so match each consensus revenue line to the right one. Compare segment net sales and operating margin, Financial Services net income, net income attributable to Deere & Company and diluted EPS, all reported GAAP in US dollars. For the fourth quarter and for fiscal 2027 show ours, the consensus mean and median, high, low, the number of estimates, and the difference in dollars and percent. Show where ours and consensus sit against the range the guide implies for the fourth quarter, in total, per share and by segment. Mark estimates dated before the August 20 release and show consensus with and without them. Where a line is defined differently, restate it only when the files give what is needed; otherwise flag it and leave the difference blank. List every line in either file that has no match.

Uses

Company
Consensus
Our model
Guide bridge

Produces

Estimate comparison

What you get back

DOCXPreview noteRating and target first, then estimates against consensus, implied Q4, fiscal 2027 and debates

XLSXEstimates workbookOurs against consensus line by line, implied Q4 by segment, read across and scenarios

Tie out reportEach figure marked tied, recalculated or open, with every correction

Make it yours

Point it at your coverage, swap in your consensus source and peers, or reorder the note. Every step and every prompt can be edited

Customize this Agent

Opens a private copy of this Agent in your workspace, ready to adapt to your own sources

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