Model update

Roll the quarter into the analyst's own model, formulas intact: actuals in, guide updated, estimates revised beside old and consensus. Every actual ties to the release or 10-Q

Customize this Agent

XLSXDOCX14 steps

The problem

One quarter in, three years revised, and the balance sheet still has to balance

Oracle's quarter had $11.4 billion of customer prepayments in operating cash flow, $28.5 billion of capex and a $20 billion share sale. The prepayments carry interest, so they behave like debt. Forecast them as recurring operating cash and free cash flow is overstated. Keep the old share count and every forward EPS is too high

The request

Oracle reported Q1 FY27 on September 10. Roll our model forward with the quarter as actuals, every line tied to the release and 10-Q. Update the guidance tab for the new Q2 and FY27 guides, FY27 now at least $90 billion of revenue and $8.10 of non-GAAP EPS, plus capex, depreciation and interest from the call. Revise Q2 through Q4 and FY27 to FY29, keeping old estimates and consensus alongside, with a reason for each change. Carry the customer prepayments and the $20 billion share sale through cash flow, net debt and share count, keep the balance sheet balanced, and show the target our current method implies. Finish with estimate changes for the note. Our model and consensus are attached.

Our ORCL model.xlsx
ORCL consensus.xlsx

How Axe works

ApprovedChanges asked

Your reviewApprove, or say what to change

Approved or changes

Model and estimate changesModel, changes and tie out report

Final reviewApprove the revised files

Revised model and estimate changesRevised files and tie out

Step

Roll the model forward

Prompt

Sent to the model at this step

Enter the quarter as actuals in the model's own layout: hardcode the tied figures in the quarter's column, mark the column actual, and leave the forecast columns as formulas. Where the company reclassified prior periods, recast the model's history to match and note it. Roll the balance sheet from the reported closing balances, so the next quarter starts from actual cash, debt, deferred revenue and equity. Carry every financing item through its own line: shares issued into equity and the share count, debt raised or repaid into the debt schedule and interest, and customer prepayments that carry interest into their own line with the interest expense they carry. Set the next quarter's diluted shares from the latest cover page count plus dilution, not from the old forecast. Do not change any forecast assumption yet. Carry each open item from the tie out into the model as a flagged cell.

Uses

Existing model
Model map
Quarter sheet
Quarter tie out

Produces

Rolled model

What you get back

XLSXUpdated modelActuals, new guide, revised estimates beside old and consensus, implied target and change log

DOCXEstimate changesHeadline changes, then old, new, change and consensus by line and year, with reasons

Tie out reportEach figure marked tied, recalculated or open, with every fix

Make it yours

Point it at your own model layout, add the lines your sector guides to, or reorder the estimate changes. Every step and every prompt can be edited

Customize this Agent

Opens a private copy of this Agent in your workspace, ready to adapt to your own sources

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