Market forecast

Build the history on one basis, forecast to 2030 in three cases and explain every change since the last edition. Every historical figure is checked against its source

Customize this Agent

PPTXXLSX15 steps

The problem

Shipped from China, registered abroad, counted twice

CAAM, the association of China's carmakers, counts exports in its sales: in the first five months of 2026, almost a third of its new energy vehicle sales were exports. The markets that import those cars count them again when they are registered. Add the regions as published and the world total runs high. In 2025 China's reported exports ran more than 25% ahead of the cars actually sold overseas

The request

Update our global EV sales forecast for autumn in the attached spring workbook and deck. Light vehicles on each region's own basis: US with light trucks, Europe M1 (EU, EFTA, UK), China passenger vehicles, rest of world. BEV and PHEV, EREVs as PHEV. History 2020 to 2025 plus 2026 to date, forecast to 2030 in base, high and low cases. China's series of record is our attached insurance registrations. Count every car once, where it's registered. Spell out the drivers, including the US tax credit ending, US fuel economy and emissions rollbacks, China's smaller purchase tax exemption and trade in subsidies, and EU CO2 targets. Explain every change from spring and check every historical figure against its source.

EV Sales Forecast Spring 2026.xlsx
EV Sales Forecast Spring 2026.pptx
China insurance registrations 2020 to Aug 2026.xlsx

How Axe works

ApprovedChanges asked

Your reviewApprove, or say what to change

Approved or changes

Forecast and reportWorkbook, deck and check report

Final reviewApprove the revised files

Revised forecast and reportRevised files and check report

Step

Reconcile the sources

Prompt

Sent to the model at this step

Build one series of record by region, segment and year, and reconcile every published figure to it on a Source reconciliation tab. In China, start from insurance registrations. Take exports and commercial vehicles out of CAAM's new energy total, set the domestic remainder and CPCA's retail sales beside the registrations, and explain each gap: dealer stock, timing and zero mileage cars. Zero mileage cars are bought new and resold at once as used, and those exported are registered twice, in China and again abroad. Count each once: take the exported ones out of China's registrations and count them in the market where they are registered for use, adding them there from export data where that market records them as used imports. The IEA's 2026 outlook puts zero mileage cars at roughly 4% of China's 2025 electric car sales. Count Chinese exports in the market where they are registered, not where they are built: reported exports ran more than 25% ahead of overseas sales in 2025, so the difference is stock abroad, not sales. In Europe, use ACEA's EU, EFTA and UK total and show Türkiye on its own line, because the IEA's Europe includes it. Convert any fiscal year series to calendar years from monthly data. Where two sources still differ by more than 2%, keep both on the source reconciliation with the reason and the one you chose. Compare the world total with the IEA's figure for each year and explain any gap.

Uses

Market definition
Source series

Produces

History

What you get back

PPTXForecast reportThe outlook, one section per region, changes since the last edition, method and sources

XLSXForecast workbookThe spring workbook rolled forward: history, source reconciliation, drivers, three cases, edition bridge

Check reportEvery figure marked checked, corrected or open, with its source

Make it yours

Point it at another market, set your own regions, segments and cases, or name the sources of record your clients expect. Every step and every prompt can be edited

Customize this Agent

Opens a private copy of this Agent in your workspace, ready to adapt to your own sources

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