Market share analysis

Put each operator on one quarter and fleet, estimate the rest of the market and compute share and its change. Every reported figure checked against its filing

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XLSXPPTX13 steps

The problem

Three fiscal years, a river business to strip out and the rest to estimate

Carnival's second quarter runs March to May, while Royal Caribbean, Norwegian and Viking report to June 30. Viking publishes ocean passenger cruise days only for the first quarter and half year, and Disney folds its passenger cruise days into a guest count with park attendance. Add the numbers as published and each share compares a different quarter, a different fleet and a total missing every operator that does not report

The request

Q2 market share analysis for global ocean cruising. Share of passenger cruise days for April to June 2026 against the same quarter of 2025, with the change in points. Take Carnival, Royal Caribbean, Norwegian and Viking from their own releases and filings, and TUI Cruises and Marella from TUI AG's quarterly statement. Carnival's quarters end in May and August, so calendarize it and show me how. Ocean only, so Viking's river business comes out. Estimate MSC, Disney and everyone else from the attached fleet register, and label every estimate. I need the share workbook and a short deck for the quarterly update, every reported figure checked against its filing. Don't drop an operator without asking me.

Ocean fleet register Sep 2026.xlsx

How Axe works

ApprovedChanges asked

Your reviewApprove, or say what to change

Approved or changes

Share workbook and deckWorkbook, deck and filings check

Final reviewApprove the revised files

Revised share workbook and deckRevised files and filings check

Step

Align calendars and definitions

Prompt

Sent to the model at this step

Put every operator on April to June and on one definition of the market. Calendarize Carnival by month: split each fiscal quarter across its months in proportion to Carnival's berth days in each month from the fleet register, so deliveries, sales and drydocks move the weights, then take April and May from the March to May quarter and June from the June to August quarter. Weighting by days in the quarter would overstate June, because third berths sold in the July and August holidays lift that quarter's occupancy, so carry June at the June to August occupancy, test it at the March to May occupancy, and show both. Derive Viking's second quarter as the half year to June 30 less the first quarter, because its segment figures are published only for those periods. Take Viking from its Ocean segment so its river business stays out. Its expedition ships and Viking Asia sit outside that segment: flag them and ask whether they belong in the estimate, and never move them on your own. Derive passenger cruise days for TUI Cruises and Marella as available passenger cruise days times occupancy, and carry the range the whole percent rounding allows. Confirm that Royal Caribbean's figures exclude TUI Cruises, which it equity accounts, and show TUI Cruises on its own line; confirm that ships Norwegian has chartered out on long term bareboat charter are out of its figures and count them with the operator that sails them. Check each capacity basis: two berths per cabin at Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Viking, single berths for Norwegian's studio cabins, and Viking's occupancy capped at 100 percent because it sells no third berths. Log every adjustment with its reason and source.

Uses

Period
Fleet register
Market definition
Reported figures

Produces

Aligned figures
Adjustments log

What you get back

XLSXShare workbookThe share table, one tab per operator, the estimate, the adjustments log and sources

PPTXShare deckShare and change as bars, the method, the estimate and its range, and sources

Filings checkOpen figures first, then each figure marked checked or corrected, with its source

Make it yours

Point it at another market, compute share on capacity or revenue instead, or change which operators come from filings. Every step and every prompt can be edited

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